Category Archives: Default
Tax policy colloquium, week 4: John Roemer’s “A theory of cooperation in games with an application to market socialism”
Prisoner’s dilemmas are pervasive in public policy. One gets them whenever there are positive or negative externalities that no institutions (be they Coasean markets or Pigovian taxes and subsidies) adequately address.
Pollution and over-fishing are among the classic examples. E.g., if I want to drive my car a lot, run the heat and AC to the max, etc, but everyone’s doing this causes catastrophic global warming, then, from a selfish standpoint, the best thing would be if everyone BUT me curtailed their activities suitably. But, given my individually trivial contribution to the overall problem, I’m best off defecting whether or not everyone else is cooperating, absent sanctions or other ways of internalizing to me the marginal cost of my causing carbon release.
With selfish players, a one-shot prisoner’s dilemma has a simple Nash answer: everyone defects, so everyone loses relative to the case where everyone cooperated. While there may be real world mitigating solutions, such as repeat play with sanctions from the other players, wouldn’t it be nice if people were willing to cooperate voluntarily, despite the selfish unilateral incentive to defect?
John answers: Not only would it be nice, but we do in fact frequently cooperate! So the Nashian view of people as always selfishly pursuing just their own welfare is inaccurate. Indeed, evolution has yielded in us a species that is unusually, and among the great apes uniquely, inclined towards cooperating with each other under suitable conditions (such as where we feel solidarity and trust towards fellow group members).
While sanctions for defection may plan an important role in preserving cooperative non-Nash equilbria, they’re not the only reason we cooperate. Nor is altruism the main reason, as it tends to be limited to a much smaller core group (such as immediate family) than the set of people with whom one is willing to cooperate.
John also finds it largely unhelpful to posit exotic preferences, such as a “warm glow” achieved subjectively by cooperating, as the explanation for the behavior. It seems to him both too hand-tailored (like Ptolemaic epicycles to reconcile celestial movements to data) and backwards, in the sense that I don’t cooperate to get a warm glow, even if I in fact get one from cooperating. I cooperate because I believe it’s right to do so.
While I see his point here, I think the “warm glow” framing is intellectually helpful for a particular reason. Even if I cooperate because I think it’s right to do so, and that this differs from eating chocolate because I think it tastes good, real-world cooperators are likely to be trading off their desire to cooperate against other things they care about. Suppose I recycle because I think it’s right to do so, not because the city might find out and fine me if I don’t. I still would likely start recycling a lot less if, say, it took several hours a week.
John says that those who cooperate, rather than defect, in prisoner’s dilemmas are generally being Kantians, as I’ll discuss shortly. But while the paper we discussed yesterday doesn’t discuss Kantianism that’s limited by one’s trading it off against selfish preferences, it does discuss conditional Kantians – that is, those whose willingness to beuave cooperatively depends on how prevalent they believe cooperative behavior is in the relevant population. (See Figure 1, at page 33 of the paper, for a visual depiction of an equilibrium at which the % actually cooperating equals the % that are willing to cooperate at that level of cooperation.)
I gather that philosophers have questioned this set-up, saying you aren’t actually a Kantian if you’re being conditional about it. While this is true as a matter of definition, once one has defined Kantians as they choose to, it is intellectually unhelpful, and would appear to be an instance of narrow-minded and retrograde siloing (an inclination that I’ve encountered from other disciplines, in my project on literature and high-end inequality).
Returning to prisoner’s dilemmas, a Kantian who faces one may ask: What is the decision that would be best if ALL of us made it? With the classic PD structure, the answer (of course) is Cooperate, don’t defect. So the Kantian does what would be best if all did it, simply because this is the right thing to do, and not based on any actual presumed effect of one’s own decision on what others will decide. So the Kantian (for example) recycles – and, I would think, also considers following a code with respect to carbon emissions that, if universalized, would properly curtail global warming and other adverse climate change.
But how does one identify the proper Kantian course of action? In a simple prisoner’s dilemma set-up, it’s obvious, since there are just two choices, Cooperate and Defect. Maybe one should think of recycling that way. As to global carbon abatement, it’s not as clear, not to mention that the motivation to cooperate (even assuming one can determine how) will be weaker if one is among John’s conditional Kantians.
John notes that many people do in fact recycle, beyond the point that sanctions and conventional incentives would seem to be inducing. There may also be a bit of Kantian behavior around carbon abatement. For example, while I am sure I do not do nearly enough in that regard, or as much as I would do if I were responding via standard incentives to a global carbon tax that had been set at an appropriate level, it is something I have in mind, and that induces me to disfavor what I feel is overly wasteful behavior. So yes, I am, upon a reflection, somewhat of a Kantian, albeit a conditional one both in John’s sense of being influenced by what I think others are doing, and my sense of trading off my preference for doing what is right in the Kantian sense against more selfish considerations.
In calling my own behavior Kantian, however imperfectly so, I am agreeing with John about the underlying psychology. Whether or not the categorical imperative is exactly the right formulation, the underlying sentiment of fairness does appear to me (from self-reflection) to have something to do with symmetry and consistency between what people do for themselves and expect from others. And in my case, but I suspect for many other people as well, a lot of it is driven by notions of reciprocity. I neither want to be a sucker, who cooperates when everyone else is defecting, nor a jerk, who defects when everyone else is cooperating. This gives psychological appeal to conditional Kantianism. And it’s not just me, if tit-for-tat sentiments, embracing both the good and the bad, are more generally intuitive.
But what does all this have to do with tax? I’ll address that in a separate post.
Kantian background to discussing John Roemer paper
As it happens, I didn’t end up recounting the story either in the AM class or at the PM public session, as it would have taken too much airtime. But I’ll indulge myself by leading with it here, before turning more particularly to the paper in a follow-up post.
It’s September or perhaps very early in October 1974, and I’ve recently arrived at Princeton University as a 17-year old freshman. (I later ascertained that 94% of the class was older than me – this in an era when 18 was the legal drinking age and there was a on-campus student pub at which you’d be carded.)
Having both a competitive nature and a family background that placed intense value on “intelligence” and academic achievement, I was eager to rate myself against the field, as well as judge myself against demanding self-expectations. I also made a point from the start of taking classes in which there were frequent student papers, because I liked writing, along with the greater control over content that they offered relative to answering exam questions.
The first short paper I got back, presumably in history or political science, came out in accordance with my self-demands. But then came the second one, in Intro to Moral Philosophy. This was a lecture course taught by Thomas Scanlon, but my “preceptor” (as they called the leaders of the weekly small-group seminar meetings) was a graduate student in the philosophy department whose name I still recall.
This paper’s subject was Kant, and more particularly the categorical imperative, which might be stated (per Wikipedia) as follows: “Act according to the maxim that you would wish all other rational people to follow, as if it were a universal law.”
Intellectually unformed though I then was, I realized that, in interpreting it, one faces what I might today call a “level of generality” problem. The example I thought of was as follows: While it DOES mean, say, that I shouldn’t lie because if everyone lied we would lose the ability to have the truth believed, it surely DOESN’T mean that I can’t go to the Wawa Market on Alexander Street at 8 pm, on the ground that no one could go there if everyone tried to at the same time. So, in attempting to apply the categorical imperative, there is a broader issue, which may have no simple or obvious answer, regarding the level of generality at which one should state the maxims that one is testing for rational consistency.
To this day, I don’t think that’s bad for what was presumably a 2-page (or at the most 5-page) paper in an undergraduate Intro to Philosophy class. But I got it back with a grade of C+ and some sort of peremptory, even angry or at least disgusted / impatient, scrawl – which might as well have been in crayon – to the effect of: No, that’s wrong, that’s not what the categorical imperative says. No effort beyond that to engage or explain where or how the grad student thought I had gone wrong.
These days, when a student gets a poor grade and comes in to see me, I’ll try to reconstruct the reasons for it (if it’s an exam that doesn’t have comments like a graded paper), but I’ll also say very strongly if this appears to be among the student’s concerns: This DOESN”T mean you’re a bad student, or not good at law or at tax, etc. – it’s just a thing that happened one time in terms of answering one question that might have been either well or poorly chosen (and then graded) by me.
But I didn’t have the older me to tell me this at the time, nor did I go talk to the graduate student, towards whom I now felt hostile. (Plus, I knew it was generally bad form to complain about grades.) What I should have done, of course, is go see Scanlon – not to complain about the grade as such, but to get broader dialogue and feedback, but the thought of doing this never occurred to me. I think I viewed him, through no fault of his own, as too far removed and remote from me.
Taking the whole thing far too seriously, I was shaken by the grade, which hurt my self-confidence (hence, I told no one about it at the time), even though I felt that it was misguided, unfair, perhaps biased for some specific reason that I couldn’t fathom, and stupid. I also concluded that maybe I wasn’t fated to do as well in philosophy classes as in other liberal arts subjects. I responded by working more diligently for the rest of that semester then I ever would again. (Once I had restored my self-confidence via my final fall 1974 results, I continued to take my schoolwork, for the most part, reasonably seriously, but I developed a tendency to prefer pursuing my own intellectual interests to those of a particular course or instructor.)
Anyway, the very interesting Roemer paper raises, among other questions, that of how good Kantians should frame the maxims that they are hypothetically universalizing in their minds. Depending on the context, the answer to this question is sometimes clear, but other times much less so.
Everyone has a favorite Kant story (or maybe not)
I see about an 80% chance that I will end up recounting the tale of the unfair bad grade (worst of my career) that I got as a freshman on a Kant paper. Not that I’m still brooding about it or anything!
NYU Tax Policy Colloquium, week 3: David Kamin’s Effects of Capital Gains Rate Uncertainty on Realization
Time for more cat pandering
I wonder if one can tell just from these two pictures who is the calmer, and who the crazier, of these two brothers (whom I would presume are genetically just half-siblings). Whether or not the pictures give it away, it’s not a close call.
Here’s Gary:
And here’s Sylvester:
So, whaddaya think?
NYU Tax Policy Colloquium, week 2: Rebecca Kysar’s Unraveling the Tax Treaty
NYU Tax Policy Colloquium, week 1: Stefanie Stancheva’s Taxation and Innovation in the 20th Century
2019 NYU Tax Policy Colloquium
SCHEDULE FOR 2019 NYU TAX POLICY COLLOQUIUM
AALS Tax Section panel
We divided up in advance the particular topics to be discussed by each of us, and here is a very rough effort to reproduce in miniature my comments:
1) What have we learned in the past year about the economic impact of the 2017 tax act?
This morning, the Sun rose. Did we thereby learn something new about the Solar System? No, because that is exactly what we expected. By contrast, we most definitely would have learned something new (assuming we were still around to reflect about it) if, for some extraordinary reason, the Sun HADN’T risen in the morning today.
For exactly that reason, we haven’t learned all that much, in the past year, about the economic impact of the 2017 tax act. For example, there was absolutely no dispute, among serious, responsible, and knowledgeable people, that the act was going to lose a lot of revenue. And so it has – perhaps slightly on the high side, relative to “dynamic” expectations, but that is what I expected for various reasons.
We also “learned” that it did not stimulate a flood of new U.S. investment and other economic activity. But the only thing that was seriously in dispute in this dimension remains so – what might be the effects on U.S. investment over a much longer time horizon – given, e.g., that the relationship between statutory and effective tax rates for multinationals is not perfectly understood (and may have changed in multiple ways by reason of the 2017 act), and that the long-term effect of rising debt overhang will need more time to be observed.
There also seems to have been, unsurprisingly, a bit of mild Keynesian stimulus at the wrong time, i.e., when it was not really much needed. The rising debt overhang may make it harder in the future to use Keynesian stimulus through budget deficits at times when it might be far more needed.
Whether or not the flood of stock buybacks by U.S. companies was expected, it should have been. What else to do with the money that one is no longer constrained from “repatriating” as an accounting matter? And big U.S. companies with overseas profits were not generally cash-constrained with regard to U.S. investment.
The buybacks gave a great talking point to critics of the 2017 act, because their occurrence seemed so contradictory to the ridiculous talking points that were being made by the act’s proponents. But were the buybacks as such bad? Not really. They presumably shifted funds from companies that had no particular current use for the $$ to shareholders who now might find it transactionally cheaper to direct as they liked the value that was paid out. This can be a good thing. And if the funds transfer was merely being delayed under prior law by international deferral, that wasn’t really doing anyone any particular good (including the U.S. tax authorities).
2) International changes
I’ve discussed the 2017 U.S. international tax changes in greater detail on other occasions. But 3 points I made are as follows:
(a) In the aftermath of GILTI and the BEAT, it’s clearer than ever that we’re in a “post-territorial” world, i.e., one in which the old “worldwide versus territorial” debate has been shown to be orthogonal to the issues of main interest to policymakers.
(b) Many U.S. tax lawyers with whom I have spoken have an aesthetic dislike for the shift in U.S. international tax law, and not just because it wiped out much of their knowledge and allowed their junior associates to be on a more even knowledge footing with them, going forward. GILTI, the BEAT, and FDII (to the extent that anyone actually cares about it) have devalued legal advice based on judgment, relative to clients’ running lots of scenarios to guide tax planning.
E.g., suppose the client is wondering about whether it will face the BEAT this year, rather than escaping it under the so-called 3 percent rule (under which the BEAT doesn’t apply if less than 3% of one’s deductions are “base erosion tax benefits”). Even if one can set the numerator for this computation with certainty – which may not be the case – one is highly unlikely to know the denominator with anything close to certainty, as it may depend on the uncertain course of various business outcomes. So rather than just ask the lawyers what the BEAT means, firms may base key planning choices on running lots of probabilistic scenarios. Whether or not this is any worse than the prior state of the play ifor American or global welfare, it’s definitely much less fun for the tax lawyers.
(c) It’s been interesting to observe that a number of other countries appear to be intrigued by the idea of adopting their own versions of GILTI and the BEAT. While not a huge surprise, I didn’t regard this in advance as entirely certain..
3) Partial repeal of state and local tax (SALT) deductions
On this front, it’s been fun (if that’s the word for it) to observe the fault lines in academic debate between people who might typically agree more with each other than they do on this issue.
In the broader policymaking world, I’ve been at least mildly surprised by:
(a) the extent to which blue states have stepped forward to devise what might be called workarounds (I think this reflects the legislation’s nasty red state vs. blue state optics).
(b) the extent to which the Treasury, in response, has seemingly been willing to back away from past limited giveaways to what were mostly red state (albeit more limited) workaround schemes. I had wondered if the Treasury might either (i) feel more constrained by past rulings that favored, e.g., the use of state law tax credit tricks to make private school tuition effectively deductible, or (ii) be willing to respond with baldfaced inconsistency as between past red state and post-2017 blue state planning responses.
4) Where might we be headed next?
This remains unclear, given both the long-term fiscal gap and pervasive U.S. political uncertainty. But future action may need to focus more on new revenue sources (such as from VATs, including disguised versions such as the BAT/DBCFT, and/or from carbon taxes and the like), and less on “tax reform.”
Indeed, I think the term “tax reform” is now dead, other than as a synonym for “changes that I, the speaker, happen to like.” And good riddance, as it had outlived its usefulness.
From at least the 1950s through the 1970s, “tax reform” mainly meant broadening the base so that high-end effective rates would tend to come closer to matching the era’s steeply graduated statutory rates.
Then in the 1980s, “tax reform” came to mean broadening the base and lowering the rates, in a manner that was meant to be net revenue-neutral and distribution-neutral. It might also involve switching from the current income tax to a far more comprehensive version of the consumption tax, although that definition didn’t really get very far off the ground until more recent decades, when it continued to lack political traction.
After the so-called 2017 “tax reform” that lost immense revenue, was extremely regressive, and in many respects narrowed the tax base (e.g., via the egregious passthrough rules), I think we can forget about the term’s being used in public policymaking without evoking derisive laughter. Whether or not 1986 tax reform was tragedy (I don’t think it was), 2017 was definitely farce, and this implies no third act for the concept.